др Марија Митровић Данкулов

18. марта 2022.

У оквиру семинара Центра за изучавање комплексних система Института за физику у Београду, у четвртак, 24. марта 2022. године у 14 часова путем Zoom платформе, др Марија Митровић Данкулов (Лабораторија за примену рачунара у науци, Центар за изучавање комплексних система, Институт за физику у Београду), одржаће предавање:

Universal patterns of multiscale stochastic processes in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic


SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has influenced every aspect of our lives in the previous two years. The course of an epidemic in one country depends on many factors, including different epidemic measures. The epidemic measures taken varied from country to country and during the epidemic. Apart from the measures themselves, the evolution of the epidemic depends significantly on different underlying stochastic processes. Understanding the global nature of these processes and how they, combined with different measures, influence the course of epidemics is crucial for predicting its evolution. In this talk, we will present the analysis [1] of the world data of SARS-CoV-2 infection events for two distinct periods during the epidemic: the first eight months of the outbreak phase and the first eight months of the immunization phase. Using methods from time series analysis and complex network theory, we will analyze the global features of mentioned stochastic processes. Our results reveal the robust communities of different countries and regions clustered according to similar shapes of infection fluctuations – the content of communities differs for two different phases of the epidemic. Further, examination of the communities reveals the appearance of large clusters that span different geographic locations, suggesting that regional similarities are not the only driver of the evolution of the epidemic. Detailed time series analysis reveals cyclic trends and that persistent fluctuations around the local trend occur in intervals smaller than 14 days. Our results provide the basis for further research into the interplay between biological and social factors that are the primary cause of epidemic infection cycles.

[1] M. Mitrović Dankulov, B. Tadić, R. Melnik, medRxiv:2021.12.20.21268095 (2021).

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Meeting ID: 878 5066 2165
Passcode: 569569