dr Sonja Predin

20. April 2022.

You are cordially invited to the SCL seminar of the Center for the Study of Complex Systems, which will be held on Monday, 25 November 2019 at 14:00 in the library reading room “Dr. Dragan Popović” of the Institute of Physics Belgrade. The talk entitled

Simulation and optimization of public transport supply

will be given by Dr. Sonja Predin (Institute for Information Systems at Hof University, Hof, Germany).


Peripheral regions in Germany are particularly affected by demographic changes (aging population, migration to attractive centers, falling population density). The big-data project Mobilität Digital Hochfranken (MobiDig) ), which is funded by the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) of Germany, aims to make transport mobility, especially public transport in peripheral regions, more economical, attractive and environmentally friendly. In actuality, public transportation in these regions typically exhibits limited operation hours, low frequencies of services, inconsistent connections between modes and generally indirect routes. As a result, mobility heavily relies on individual motorized vehicle ownership and usage. Cases of social hardship occur where people without a car or driving license such as children, elderly or disabled people are isolated.

In this talk we present an innovative, comprehensive mobility model for the region of Hochfranken, as an example, which we have conceptually developed, experimentally tested and evaluated from digital data sources, such as demographic census data and GPRS data. To analyze these data, we have used existing components for statistical analysis and methods of machine learning (Neural network, Bayes net, Random forest). The predictive models of transport are designed as simulation models in the programming language Java through the object-oriented MATSim package, such that the utilization of new or modified offers in local public transport can be simulated.